The U.S.–China “Phoney Trade War” Looks Like It’s Ending , Why It Matters to Africa and Nigeria

 A major shift is underway in global trade: what has been termed a “phony trade war” between the United States and the People’s Republic of China may finally be easing, and the ripple effects will be felt far beyond their borders. 

For months, small businesses in the U.S. have operated under a cloud of uncertainty, thanks to tariff threats, supply-chain disruptions, and escalating costs. Now, with signs of de-escalation, the global economic dynamic is shifting.

What’s changing?

• Tariffs between the U.S. and China, which were largely announced but slow to bite, are showing early signs of rollback or freeze.

• The spike in market volatility and risk indicators, which had worried investors, may start to ease.

• For African economies, especially Nigeria, this could mean renewed access to U.S. and Chinese markets (and if appropriately leveraged, smarter import/export strategies).

Why Africa & Nigeria Should Care

1. Trade Opportunities: A thaw in U.S.–China tensions can lead to more favourable conditions for third-party exporters and importers, and African manufacturers might find new chances to step in.

2. Supply Chain Re-routing: As major global players restructure, there’s room for African nations to position themselves in alternative supply chains, with less dependency, more negotiation power.

3. Investment Confidence: Emerging markets often absorb spill-over shifts in global trade. If Africa presents stability and clarity, it could attract more investment realignment.

4. Policy Window: For Nigeria, this moment offers a chance for policymakers to recalibrate trade, focus on value addition, and avoid being caught in the crossfire of superpower diplomacy.

Big Questions Ahead

• Will the U.S. and China fully commit to a rollback or just pause the escalation?

• How quickly can African countries adjust, in regulations, infrastructure, and production, to take advantage?

• Will Nigeria act fast enough to create real-world benefits from this global shift, or will the window close while watching?